Investor Lyn Alden shared her certainties about the bullrun pursuit in an interview with Coin Telegraph. The analyst is convinced that Bitcoin still has the potential to hit $ 100,000 in the current bull cycle, despite increasing uncertainty and heightened volatility.
Mixed signals for Bitcoin
Overall, Alden is showing a bullish bias on Bitcoin, due to his confidence in the fundamentals of the network. As early as fall 2020, Alden had already claimed that Bitcoin would reach $ 1,000 billion in capitalization, given the network effect and the arrival of institutions in the crypto-game. However, the analyst also cautions on current market conditions:
For people who would have difficulty coping with dips or periods of volatility, it may be a good idea to rebalance [positions].
The warning signs of top
Despite the strength of her beliefs, the investor points to the presence of warning signs that could signal a medium-term high for Bitcoin.
First, we have the Pi Cycle indicator, which reported a top around $ 63,000. This indicator designed on the basis of previous cycles would make it possible to detect the peak of a bull run. When the 111-day moving average crosses upwards 350-day moving average, then bitcoin would have reached a higher sustainable high.
As you can see from the chart above, this indicator accurately predicted the 2017 cycle top in mid-December.
Another sign of bullish exuberance put forward by Alden is the mad rush of dog tokens. Elon Musk’s whimsical statements about DOGE, the meteoric rise of SHIB and his peers, are generally viewed as signs of the end of the cycle.
The supercycle theory: “this time it will be different”
With the massive arrival of institutional players in the digital asset market, some observers are suggesting that this cycle will not be marked by a major retracement, as the previous ones have been. This thesis would like institutions exposed to Bitcoin to defend their positions, by buying during corrections or, at the very least, that they will not sell during periods of volatility.
In our opinion, if a major institution has the opportunity to crash the price of bitcoin, while making a profit, it will. On the one hand, these players don’t care about the price of BTC, the only thing that matters is their annual performance which determines their bonuses. On the other hand, institutions have every interest in forcing a bear market which will slow down the growth of the ecosystem.
However, some indicators, such as the stock-to-flow model, support the thesis of the continuation of the bull run with bitcoin reaching $ 100,000 in 2021, as Alden implies. Indeed, the latter declared to maintain a “large position” Bitcoin, because of these strong convictions in the fundamentals of the network.